Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., May 17, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC Vegas 106.

Safe to say, Burns' back is to wall after losing three straight at 38 years of age. Simultaneously, he's lost to the three best fighters at 170 pounds right now, so it's not like his losses are inexcusable. Morales serves as a step back in competition, which is kind of crazy given his status as a fast-rising contender. The Ecuadorian prospect is 13 years younger than "Durinho," and he's already picked up five wins to kick off his UFC career. He's clearly a tremendous athlete, but his skills are still a work-in-progress, which makes this five-round main event slot an interesting test of his current abilities.

Let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Burns may be a former Lightweight, but physicality is a big part of his game. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace has long been a considerable punching threat and quality wrestler, allowing him to attack on three levels. Outside of his grappling mastery, there's not a ton of subtlety to his game, which is part of his issue as age has set in.

This is a match up where experience and misdirection are key. Morales is a tank of a Welterweight, so exchanging him in a firefight or trying to run him over with a double would be ill-advised. A little more tact will be necessary, but given Morales' low hand position and inexperience on his back, one successful setup could pay off in a huge way.

An important aspect of this bout is confidence. Burns cannot be defensive and avoid exchanges -- that's how he ends up reactive, low-volume, and stopped along the cage. He has to be willing to throw in combination and stand his ground, which will help convince Morales to throw in return and leave him more open to takedowns.

Generally, Burns has to mix it up. He should be attacking with calf kicks, right hands and double-leg shots.

Morales is a powerhouse, as well as a massive Welterweight. He started his martial arts journey in Judo and then wrestling as a child, but it wasn't long before he transitioned in MMA during his teen years. Despite being just 25 years old, Morales has fought 17 times as a professional.

He's very relaxed and composed in the cage, which certainly makes him more dangerous.

On a related note, the key to securing a finish here is making "Durinho" uncomfortable. In his last appearance, Burns looked downright hesitant to pull the trigger, allowing Sean Brady to build a huge volume edge against him. Morales is a much more powerful puncher than Brady, so he can really make Burns pay for any hesitancy.

Consistent pressure will make the veteran question himself. Morales doesn't have to overcommit to his punches or force the finish, but he can coax a mistake from Burns simply by staying in his face and putting forth a reasonable output level.

First and foremost, these odds are over the top. All but a handful of Welterweights go 0-3 opposite the likes of Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad and the aforementioned Brady ... and I would not expect Morales to be among the exceptions. Those losses alone don't indicate that Burns is shot -- it's just that lackluster showing against Brady that really feels damning for his future.

I'm not fully sold on Morales as a future champion at 170 pounds, either. He's largely just athletically bullying his opposition, and that only works up to a certain point. If Burns shows up reinvigorated and fresh, he has a strong shot at upsetting the young talent. He certainly has the skills to do so. Unfortunately, it's hard to go against trends, and there's no precedent in combat sports more prevalent than the young devouring the old.

The potential is here for Father Time to take a loss, but it doesn't happen often.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 106 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ "Prelims" undercard bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also streaming on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.